(Commission File No. 1-14862 )
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant by furnishing the information
contained in this Form is also thereby furnishing the information to the
Commission pursuant to Rule 12g3-2(b) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Yes ______ No ___X___
Strictly private and confidential |
Valuation Report to Ultrapar Participações
Ultrapar Participações S.A., Refinaria Petroleo Ipiranga S.A., Distribuidora de
Produtos de Petroleo Ipiranga S.A., Companhia Brasileira de Petroleo Ipiranga
April 4, 2007
Disclaimer
Disclaimer (continued)
Disclaimer (continued)
Contents
Section | |||||
1 | Executive summary | 1 | |||
2 | Valuation summary | 9 | |||
A | Ultrapar | 10 | |||
B | RIPI | 13 | |||
C | DPPI | 16 | |||
D | CBPI | 19 | |||
3 | Economic value of underlying assets | 22 | |||
A | Ultrapar | 26 | |||
B | Ultrapar prior to the share merger | 37 | |||
C | CBPI distribution | 39 | |||
D | DPPI distribution | 45 | |||
E | Copesul | 50 | |||
F | IPQ | 55 | |||
G | Valuation of other assets based on multiples | 60 | |||
4 | Final considerations | 62 | |||
5 | Glossary | 64 | |||
Appendix | |||||
I | Share price evolution | 67 | |||
II | Comparable multiples | 73 |
Executive summary | Section 1 |
|
Section 1
Executive summary
Initial considerations
Scope of Deutsche Banks analysis
The objective of this Valuation Report is to present economic valuations of both Ultrapar and Ipiranga Group in accordance with the criteria defined as mandatory by the CVM
Under the CVM Rule #361/02, Deutsche Bank has conducted an analysis using the following methodologies and assumptions:
Among the different valuation methodologies presented in this Valuation Report, Deutsche Bank believes the economic value based on DCF and comparable multiples is the most applicable methodology for valuing Ultrapar and Ipiranga
Economic value methodologies for different business lines |
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Discounted cash flow | Codename | WACC | Public company comparables | Codename | ||||
Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga | CBPI | 12.2% | Ipiranga Química S.A. | IQ | ||||
Distribuidora de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga | DPPI | 12.3% | Empresa Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A. | EMCA | ||||
Copesul Central Química | Copesul | 11.2% | Ipiranga Asfaltos | IASA | ||||
Ipiranga Petroquímica S.A. | IPQ | 11.8% | AM/PM Comestíveis | AM/PM | ||||
Ultrapar Participações | Ultrapar | 10.6% | Isa-Sul Administração e Part. Ltda | Isa-sul | ||||
Refinaria Petróleo Ipiranga S.A. | Refinery |
3
Valuation range price per share
4
Conducting the economic valuation
Discounted Cash Flow - DCF Analysis |
Comparable Public Company Analysis |
Comparable Precedent Transaction Analysis | ||||||
The three main economic valuation methodologies used were: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), comparable public companies multiples and comparable precedent transaction multiples | Methodology | |||||||
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Potential advantages |
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Potential disadvantages |
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Considerations |
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Notes: (1) TEV Total Enterprise Value = Equity plus Net debt. |
5
Deutsche Bank credentials
6
Additional considerations
There is no conflict of interest that compromises the independence necessary to prepare this Report
Deutsche Bank and its affiliates held 8,527 non-voting shares of Braskem and 171,000 ADRs of Braskem; 62,175 voting shares of Petrobras, and 500,540 ADRs of Petrobras; Deutsche Bank and its affiliates did not hold, directly or indirectly, any shares of CBPI, DPPI and RIPI, nor did they hold shares or ADRs of Ultrapar, Petrobras or Braskem other than the shares/ADRs mentioned above
Deutsche Bank is engaged in sales and trading transactions with Petrobras and Braskem, which includes, but is not limited to , derivatives
In May 2006, Deutsche Bank received R$2,673,760.50 net of taxes from Petrobras for the advisory and structuring services rendered in connection with the acquisition of ABB's stake in Termobahia. Deutsche Bank did not receive any other fees from Ultrapar, Braskem or Petrobras in connection with financial advisory, consulting or auditing services, or any other investment banking services over the past 12 months
Deutsche Bank will receive US$3,000,000 net of taxes as a fee for the delivery of this Report
7
Additional considerations (continued)
The merger of Brahma and Antarctica to form Ambev, the unwinding of CSNs controlling interest in CVRD (advisor to CVRD), the acquisition of a Bolivian refinery by Petrobras (advisor to Petrobras), the sale of Latasa to Rexam by Bradesco, Alcoa and JP Morgan (advisor to sellers), the acquisition of Panamco by Coca-Cola FEMSA (advisor to Coca-Cola FEMSA), and the repurchase by FEMSA of Interbrews stake in Femsa Cerveza (advisor to FEMSA) among others
8
Valuation summary | Section 2 | |
Section 2
Valuation summary
9
Tab A
Ultrapar
10
Ultrapar Participações S.A.
2006 sales | Corporate structure | Company description | ||
Ultrapar is a holding company for 3 separate operating companies: Oxiteno, Ultragaz, and Ultracargo | ||||
Major subsidiaries | ||||
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Source: Public Ultrapar information | Source: Public Ultrapar information |
11
Ultrapar valuation
Prior to the share merger, Ultrapars share value ranges from R$64.48 to R$71.26 based on the economic value | Economic value (R$) | Book value Ultrapar | |||||||||
Ultrapar TEV (before steps 1 and 2) | 5,879 | 12/31/2006 | |||||||||
(+) net cash | 19 | Shareholder equity (R$ million) |
1,940.7 81.3 |
||||||||
Ultrapar Equity value (before steps 1 and 2) | 5,898 | ||||||||||
(+) assets acquired (a) | 497 | Book value per share (R$ per share) | 23.86 | ||||||||
(-) price paid(b) | (876) | ||||||||||
Ultrapar equity value (after steps 1 and 2) | 5,520 | ||||||||||
Total number of shares (million) | 81.3 | ||||||||||
Price per share R$ per share | 64.48 | 67.87 | 71.26 | ||||||||
-5% | +5% | ||||||||||
Note: Figures in R$ million unless otherwise noted. |
Note: Book value based on operating company financials as of 12/31/2006 Source: Companys filings | ||||||||||
Source: Ultrapar information and Deutsche Bank | |||||||||||
|
Weighted average share price announcement to April 2, 2007 (a) |
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ON | PN | ON | PN | ||||||||
Total volume (000s) | NA | 17,108 | Total volume (000s) | NA | 2,822 | ||||||
W.A. share price (R$ per share) | NA | 43.08 | W.A. share price (R$ per share) | NA | 56.10 | ||||||
(a) From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007 |
(a) From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007 |
12
Tab B
RIPI
13
Refinaria Petroleo Ipiranga SA RIPI
Corporate structure | Company description | |
RIPI is a holding company for certain Ipiranga investments and operates a refinery |
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Major subsidiaries | ||
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Note: Families include Gouv êa, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families | Note: Volume sold refers to total volume; Revenue figures not consolidated | |
Source: Public Ipiranga information | Source: Public Ipiranga information |
14
RIPI valuation
RIPIs share value ranges from R$51.63 to R$57.06 based on the economic value | Economic value | Book value RIPI SA | ||||||||||
(R$ million) | 100% TEV |
Proportionate TEV |
12/31/2006 | |||||||||
Shareholder equity (R$ million) Total number of shares (million) Book value per s hare (R$ per share) |
577.3 29.6 | |||||||||||
IQ SA | 3,051 | 58.53% | 1,786 | |||||||||
CBPI SA | 4,029 | 11.42% | 460 | |||||||||
DPPI SA | 1,552 | 7.65% | 119 | 19.50 | ||||||||
RIPI Opco | 9 | 100.0% | 9 | |||||||||
RIPI Total Enterprise Value | 2,373 | |||||||||||
(-) net debt | (765) | |||||||||||
RIPI Equity value | 1,609 | |||||||||||
Total number of shares (million) | 29.6 | |||||||||||
Price per share R$ per share | 51.63 | 54.35 | 57.06 | |||||||||
-5% | +5% | |||||||||||
Note: Figures in R$ million unless otherwise noted. Source: Ipiranga information and Deutsche Bank |
Note: Book value based on operating company financials as of 12/31/2006 Source: Companys filings |
|||||||||||
Weighted average share price |
Weighted average share price announcement to April 2, 2007 (a) |
||||||||||
ON | PN | ON | PN | ||||||||
Total volume (000s) | 1,843 | 5,850 | Total volume (000s) | 528 | 1,495 | ||||||
45.81 | 32.75 | W.A. share price (R$ per share) | 91.57 | 44.85 | |||||||
(a) From 03/15/2006 to 03/ 16/2007 Source: FactSet |
(a) From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007 |
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15
Tab C
DPPI
16
Distribuidora de Produtos de Petroleo Ipiranga SA DPPI
Corporate structure | Company description | |
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Major subsidiaries: | ||
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Note: Families include Gouv êa, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal families Source: Public Ipiranga information | Note: Volumes refer to volumes sold. Revenues are not consolidated Source: Public Ipiranga information |
17
DPPI valuation
DPPIs share value ranges from R$41.11 to R$45.44 based on the economic value | Economic value | Book value DPPI SA | |||||||||
100% TEV |
Proportionate TEV |
12/31/2006 | |||||||||
(R$ million) | 804.0 32.0 |
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CBPI | 4,029 | 21.01% | 847 | Shareholder equity (R$ million) | |||||||
DPPI Opco | 706 | 100.00% | 706 | Total number of shares (million) | |||||||
DIPPI Total Enterprise Value | 1,552 | Book value per s hare (R$ per share) | 25.13 | ||||||||
(-) net debt | (168) | ||||||||||
DPPI equity value | 1,385 | ||||||||||
Total number of shares (million) | 32.0 | ||||||||||
Price per share R$ per share | 41.11 | 43.28 | 45.44 | ||||||||
-5% | +5% | ||||||||||
Note: Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise noted Source: Ipiranga information and Deutsche Bank |
Note: Book value based on operating company financials as of 12/31/2006 Source: Companys filings | ||||||||||
Weighted average share price LTM to announcement (a) |
Weighted average share price announcement to April 2, 2007 (a) |
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ON | PN | ON | PN | ||||||||||
Total volume (000s) | 24 | 2,919 | Total volume (000s) | 61 | 514 | ||||||||
W.A. share price (R$ per share) | 41.69 | 24.99 | W.A. share price (R$ per share) | 96.53 | 34.69 | ||||||||
(a) From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007 Source: FactSet |
(a) From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007 Source: FactSet |
18
Tab D
CBPI
19
Companhia Brasileira de Petroleo Ipiranga CBPI
Corporate structure | Company description | |
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Major subsidiaries | ||
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Note: Families include Gouv êa, Tellechea, Mello, Bastos, and Ormazabal f amilies Source: Public Ipiranga information |
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Source: Public Ipiranga information |
20
CBPI valuation
CBPIs share value ranges from R$26.97 to R$29.81 based on the | Economic value | Book value CBPI | |||||||||
(R$ million) | 100% TEV |
Proportionate TEV |
12/31/2006 | ||||||||
Copesul | 5,635 | 29.46% | 1,660 | (1) | Shareholder equity (R$ million) | 1,555.2 106.0 | |||||
IPQ Opco | 1,452 | 100.00% | 1,452 | (2) | Total number of shares (million) | ||||||
100% IPQ SA. | 3,112 | (3)=(1)+(2) | Book value per s hare (R$ per share) | 14.68 | |||||||
IPQ SA. | 3,112 | 92.39% | 2,875 | (4)=(3)x stake | |||||||
IQ Opco | 176 | 100.00% | 176 | (5) | |||||||
100% IQ SA | 3,051 | (6)=(4)+(5) | |||||||||
IQ SA | 3,051 | 41.47% | 1,265 | (7)=(6)x stake | |||||||
CBPI Opco | 2,764 | 100.00% | 2,764 | (8) | |||||||
CBPI Total Enterprise Value | 4,029 | (9)=(7)+(8) | |||||||||
(-) net debt | (1,021) | ||||||||||
CBPI - Equity Value | 3,008 | ||||||||||
Total number of shares (million) | 106.0 | ||||||||||
Price per share - R$ per share | 26.97 | 28.39 | 29.81 | ||||||||
-5% | +5% | ||||||||||
Note: Figures in R$ million, except unless otherwise noted Source: Ipiranga information and Deutshe Bank |
Note: Book value based on operating company financials as of 12/31/2006 Source: Company's filings |
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Weighted average share price LTM to announcement (a) |
Weighted average share price announcement to April 2, 2007 (a) |
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ON | PN | ON | PN | ||||||||
Total volume (000s) | 123 | 62.524 | Total volume (000s) | 168 | 7,946 | ||||||
W.A. share price (R$ per share) | 21.72 | 18.32 | W.A. share price (R$ per share) | 52.55 | 23.28 | ||||||
(a) From 03/15/2006 to 03/16/2007 Source: FactSet |
(a) From 03/16/2007 to 04/02/2007 Source: FactSet |
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21
Section 3
Economic value of assets
22
Valuation considerations | ||||
The companies were valued on a stand-alone basis The valuation of each asset excludes any potential synergies that could be achieved as a result of the transaction |
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DCF | Multiples | |||
Basic assumptions |
Basic assumptions Based on multiples of EBITDA Precedent transactions Applied to LTM EBITDA Trading comparables Applied to 2006 EBITDA except for petrochemicals, where an average of 3 5 years (normalized EBITDA) was used depending on the company |
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DCF valuation | Multiple -based valuation | |||
Companhia Brasileira de Petróleo Ipiranga Distribuidora de Prod. de Petróleo Ipiranga Copesul Central Química Ipiranga Petroquímica S.A. Ultrapar Participações |
Ipiranga Química S.A. precedent trans actions Empresa Carioca de Prod. Químicos S.A. trading comps Ipiranga Asfaltos precedent transactions AM/PM Comestíveis trading comps Isa-Sul Adm . e Part. Ltda implied multiple from DPPI DCF |
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Source: Ultrapar and Deutsche Bank | Source: Ultrapar and Deutsche Bank |
23
Weighted Average Cost of Capital and Cost of Equity
WACC and Ke
WACC definition | ||||||||||||
(US$ nominal) | Ipiranga companies | |||||||||||
Ultrapar | CBPI | DPPI | Copesul | IPQ | ||||||||
I. Beta calculation (a) | ||||||||||||
1. Beta un- levered | 0.64 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.86 | |||||||
Long-term optimal debt (D)/cap (D+E) ratio | 35% (b) | 40% (c) | 40% (c) | 50% (c) | 50% (c) | |||||||
Long-term optimal equity (E) /cap (D+E) ratio | 65% (b) | 60% (c) | 60% (c) | 50% (c) | 50% (c) | |||||||
Marginal tax rate (tax)(d) | 22% | 26% | 23% | 33% | 25% | |||||||
2. Re-levered equity beta (b) | 0.92 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.44 | 1.50 | |||||||
II. Calculation of Cost of Capital | ||||||||||||
US risk free rate (Rfr) (e) | 4.5% p.a. | 4.5% p.a. | 4.5% p.a. | 4.5% p.a. | 4.5% p.a. | |||||||
Local risk premium (CRP) (f) | 200 bps | 200 bps | 200 bps | 200 bps | 200 bps | |||||||
Local long-term risk free rate | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | |||||||
US equity risk premium (ERP) (g) | 7.1% p.a. | 7.1% p.a. | 7.1% p.a. | 7.1% p.a. | 7.1% p.a. | |||||||
3. Cost of Equity (Ke) | 13.0% p.a. | 16.1% p.a. | 16.2% p.a. | 16.7% p.a. | 17.2 p.a.% | |||||||
Local long-term risk free rate | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | 6.5% p.a. | |||||||
Long-term corporate risk spread (h) | 150 bps | 200 bps | 200 bps | 200 bps | 200 bps | |||||||
4. Cost of Debt (Kd) | 8.0% p.a. | 8.50% p.a. | 8.50% p.a. | 8.50% p.a. | 8.50% p.a. | |||||||
5. WACC | 10.6% p.a. | 12.2% p.a. | 12.3% p.a. | 11.2% p.a. | 11.8% p.a. |
Note: | (a) 2 years weekly Betas against the S&P 500 for the sample of companies that represent each industry (source: Bloomberg) | ||
(b) Based on a more conservative company risk profile than the optimal capital structure for the industry | |||
(c) Based on comparable public companies | |||
(d) Marginal tax rates as provided by the management of the companies | |||
(e) US risk free rate is the yield of the US Treasury (source: FactSet) | |||
(f) Local risk premium based on spread of the sovereign bond to the equivalent US Treasury (source: Bloomberg) | |||
(g) Equity risk premium from Ibbotsons 2006 report | |||
(h) Long term corporate risk spreads are based on companies outstanding debt (source: the companies financials) | |||
Source: Bloomberg, Factset and the companies |
24
Macroeconomic assumptions
US Economy | 2004A | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | |||||||||||||
Inflation (a) | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |||||||||||||
US Treasury (a) | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | |||||||||||||
Brazil Economy | 2004A | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | |||||||||||||
GDP - real growth (b) | 0.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||||||||||||
GDP - nominal growth | 5.7% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | |||||||||||||
Brazilian population growth (c) | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | |||||||||||||
Inflation (IPCA) (a) | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | |||||||||||||
Selic (average) (b) | 23.0% | 16.4% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | |||||||||||||
CDI (Brazilian interbank rate) (b) | 23.5% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | |||||||||||||
FX rate eop (d) | 2.85 | 2.34 | 2.14 | 2.18 | 2.29 | 2.32 | 2.36 | 2.39 | 2.43 | 2.46 | 2.50 | 2.54 | 2.57 | |||||||||||||
FX rate avg | 3.05 | 2.43 | 2.19 | 2.16 | 2.24 | 2.31 | 2.34 | 2.38 | 2.41 | 2.45 | 2.48 | 2.52 | 2.56 | |||||||||||||
Average R$ devaluation | (20.3%) | (9.9%) | (1.5%) | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
25
Tab A
Ultrapar
26
Economic value of assets | Section 3 | |
Ultrapar consolidated DCF valuation
Ultrapar consolidates: Ultragaz, the #1 LPG distributor in Brazil, Oxiteno, the main producer of Ethylene Oxide and its main derivatives in Latin America, and Ultracargo, a logistic company for special products |
2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | Perp. | |||||||||||||
1. EBIT | 157 | 163 | 218 | 239 | 249 | 251 | 257 | 286 | 297 | 347 | 364 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | 4.1% | 33.2% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 11.3% | 3.9% | 16.8% | 5.0% | |||||||||||||
(-) tax | (37) | (38) | (47) | (51) | (53) | (54) | (56) | (64) | (67) | (77) | (80) | |||||||||||||
effective tax rate | (23.4%) | (23.5%) | (21.6%) | (21.3%) | (21.1%) | (21.5%) | (21.7%) | (22.4%) | (22.6%) | (22.1%) | (22.1%) | |||||||||||||
3. EBIT (-) tax | 120 | 125 | 171 | 188 | 197 | 197 | 201 | 222 | 230 | 270 | 284 | |||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation & Amortization | 93 | 103 | 111 | 119 | 127 | 131 | 134 | 116 | 119 | 87 | 87 | |||||||||||||
(-) Capex | (253) | (154) | (103) | (96) | (99) | (101) | (104) | (106) | (100) | (98) | (87) | |||||||||||||
(-) Changes in net operating working capital | (7) | (19) | (50) | (21) | (19) | (17) | (16) | (13) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |||||||||||||
4. Free cash flow to the Firm | (47) | 56 | 129 | 190 | 206 | 209 | 215 | 218 | 238 | 248 | 272 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | - | - | 130.4% | 47.8% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 9.8% |
Note: Annual free cash flow in US$ millions Effective tax rate based on the effective tax rates of Ultragaz, Oxiteno, and Ultracargo Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance |
27
Assumptions Ultragaz
Selected income statement drivers
28
Assumptions Ultragaz (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
29
Assumptions Ultragaz (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006 |
Net operating working capital | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
(R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital | 150.2 | 126.4 | 133.5 | 141.9 | 150.0 | 158.5 | 167.4 | 176.6 | 186.2 | 196.3 | 207.0 | 218.2 | ||||||||||||||
(+) current assets | 216 | 203 | 215 | 228 | 241 | 255 | 269 | 284 | 299 | 316 | 333 | 351 | ||||||||||||||
(-) current liabilities | (65) | (77) | (81) | (87) | (91) | (97) | (102) | (107) | (113) | (119) | (126) | (132) | ||||||||||||||
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital | (7) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | ||||||||||||||||
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance |
30
Assumptions Oxiteno
Selected income statement drivers
31
Assumptions Oxiteno (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
32
Assumptions Oxiteno (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006 |
Net operating working capital | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
(R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital | 259.5 | 361.2 | 368.0 | 400.0 | 504.5 | 543.7 | 580.0 | 611.8 | 641.0 | 661.7 | 677.3 | 694.2 | ||||||||||||||
(+) current assets | 352 | 468 | 478 | 520 | 651 | 700 | 747 | 791 | 830 | 858 | 878 | 898 | ||||||||||||||
(-) current liabilities | (92) | (107) | (110) | (120) | (147) | (157) | (167) | (179) | (189) | (196) | (200) | (204) | ||||||||||||||
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital | (7) | (32) | (105) | (39) | (36) | (32) | (29) | (21) | (16) | (17) | ||||||||||||||||
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance |
33
Assumptions Ultracargo
Selected income statement drivers
34
Assumptions Ultracargo (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
35
Assumptions Ultracargo (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006 |
Net operating working capital | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
(R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital | 14.0 | 16.1 | 17.7 | 19. 4 | 21.1 | 22.9 | 23.9 | 24.9 | 26.0 | 27.1 | 28.2 | 29.5 | ||||||||||||||
(+) current assets | 33 | 35 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 50 | 52 | 54 | 57 | 59 | 62 | 64 | ||||||||||||||
(-) current liabilities | (19) | (19) | (20) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (32) | (33) | (35) | ||||||||||||||
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | ||||||||||||||||
Source: Company information and Ultrapar management guidance |
36
Tab B
Ultrapar prior to the share merger
37
Ultrapar prior to the share merger
Stake at SA vs. Stake at Opco | |||||||||||||||||||
| After completing steps 1 and 2, Ultrapar will have acquired 41.3% of RIPI, 35.4% of DPPI, and 4.1% of CBPI | (R$ million) | TEV (5) | Equity 497 | |||||||||||||||
| Ultrapar will spend R$876 million on steps 1 and 2 | Assets acquired by Ultrapar | 591 | ||||||||||||||||
| These stakes are equivalent to 41.3% of the refinery, 38.5% of the distribution business of DPPI, and 16.9% of the distribution business of CBPI | Refinery DPPI distribution CBPI distribution CBPI EMCA |
(1) (2) (3) (4) |
41,3% 38,5% 16,9% 16,9% |
1 272 315 3 |
(10) 290 217 0 | |||||||||||||
Ipiranga SA RIPI SA DPPI SA CBPI SA |
Stake at S.A. 41.3% 35.4% 4.1% |
Stake at Opco 41.3% 38.5% 16.9% |
Refinery DPPI distribution CBPI distribution |
(1) Includes 1/3 of the Refinery only (2) Includes ISA-Sul (3) Includes CBPI distribution and the AM/PM convenience stores in the South and Southeast (3) Assumes that Petrobras will pay with cash for 100% of its stake and will assume no debt from CBPI (4) EMCA will be 100% owned by Ultrapar (5) Represents Ultrapar's stake in the acquired assets |
|||||||||||||||
Note: Takes into consideration the cross ownership of the companies in the underlying assets as indicated in the chart. | |||||||||||||||||||
Source: Public company information |
38
Tab C
Fuel distribution CBPI
39
CBPI distribution DCF valuation
CBPI: A fuel distributor operating in Brazil, except Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima and Amapa In addition to the distribution business, CBPI also consolidates AM/PM, IASA, and EMCA totaling R$2.7 billion TEV (refer to page 61) |
2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | Perp. | |||||||||||||
1. EBIT | 90 | 106 | 122 | 142 | 164 | 251 | 268 | 298 | 340 | 361 | 379 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | 18.3% | 14.7% | 16.5% | 15.7% | 52.6% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | |||||||||||||
(-) tax | (23) | (27) | (31) | (36) | (42) | (64) | (69) | (76) | (87) | (93) | (97) | |||||||||||||
effective tax rate | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | (25.6%) | |||||||||||||
67 | 79 | 91 | 106 | 122 | 187 | 200 | 222 | 253 | 269 | 282 | ||||||||||||||
3. EBIT (-) tax | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation & Amortization | 41 | 47 | 52 | 60 | 69 | 78 | 86 | 84 | 73 | 84 | 83 | |||||||||||||
(-) Capex, net of reimbursement | (74) | (63) | (91) | (116) | (134) | (98) | (105) | (127) | (144) | (137) | (130) | |||||||||||||
(-) Changes in net operating working capital | (8) | (46) | (55) | (58) | (61) | (37) | (50) | (51) | (52) | (59) | (61) | |||||||||||||
4. Free cash flow to the Firm | 27 | 17 | (3) | (8) | (4) | 130 | 131 | 128 | 130 | 156 | 174 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | (37.9%) | (120.4%) | 125.6% | (43.1%) | n.a. | 0.4% | (1.8%) | 1.1% | 20.1% | 11.5% | |||||||||||||
Note: Annual free cash flow in US$ millions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
40
Assumptions CBPI distribution
Selected income statement drivers
41
Assumptions CBPI distribution (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
42
Assumptions CBPI distribution (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
43
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006 | Change in net operating working capital | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital | 671 | 872 | 889 | 992 | 1,119 | 1,253 | 1,399 | 1,487 | 1,608 | 1,734 | 1,863 | 2,015 | ||||||||||||||
(+) current assets | 1,342 | 1,491 | 1,681 | 1,882 | 2,126 | 2,386 | 2,668 | 2,888 | 3,123 | 3,377 | 3,651 | 3,947 | ||||||||||||||
(-) current liabilities | 671 | 618 | 792 | 890 | 1,007 | 1,133 | 1,270 | 1,401 | 1,515 | 1,644 | 1,788 | 1,931 | ||||||||||||||
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital | (17) | (103) | (127) | (135) | (145) | (88) | (122) | (125) | (130) | (152) | ||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information and an external consultant, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
44
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Tab D
Fuel distribution DPPI
45
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
DPPI distribution DCF Valuation
DPPI: A fuel distributor operating in 2 states in the South of Brazil | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | Perp. | |||||||||||||
1. EBIT | 29 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 44 | 48 | 55 | 58 | 63 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | 14.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 4.8% | 9.2% | |||||||||||||
(-) tax | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (13) | (14) | |||||||||||||
effective tax rate | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | (22.8%) | |||||||||||||
Isa-Sul, a wholly owned subsidiary of DPPI, owns 152 gas stations in DPPIs region. Isa- Sul is valued based on DPPIs TEV multiple of 2006 EBITDA | 3. EBIT (-) tax | 23 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 42 | 44 | 49 | ||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation & Amortization | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 19 | |||||||||||||
(-) Capex | (15) | (8) | (6) | (11) | (8) | (13) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (9) | (19) | |||||||||||||
(-) Changes in net operating working capital | (12) | (13) | (13) | (12) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (14) | |||||||||||||
4. Free cash flow to the Firm | 5 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 31 | 35 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | 199.4% | 28.0% | (6.2%) | 38.7% | (12.7%) | 14.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 18.4% | 11.1% | |||||||||||||
Note: Annual free cash flow in US$ millions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
46
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions DPPI distribution
Selected income statement drivers
47
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions DPPI distribution (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
48
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions DPPI distribution
Selected balance sheet drivers
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006 | Change in net operating working capital | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital | 145 | 255 | 280 | 310 | 340 | 368 | 392 | 417 | 445 | 475 | 506 | 539 | ||||||||||||||
(+) current assets | 232 | 310 | 338 | 375 | 412 | 446 | 474 | 505 | 539 | 575 | 613 | 653 | ||||||||||||||
(-) current liabilities | 87 | 55 | 59 | 65 | 71 | 77 | 82 | 88 | 93 | 100 | 107 | 114 | ||||||||||||||
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital | (25) | (30) | (31) | (28) | (23) | (26) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (33) | ||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information and an external consultant, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
49
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Tab E
Copesul
50
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Copesul DCF valuation
Copesul is a naphtha- based cracker jointly controlled by Ipiranga (29.5%) and Braskem (29.5%) | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | Perp. | |||||||||||||
1. EBIT | 402 | 294 | 273 | 228 | 231 | 315 | 365 | 454 | 521 | 488 | 374 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | (3.6%) | (26.9%) | (6.9%) | (16.5%) | 1.1% | 36.6% | 15.6% | 24.6% | 14.6% | (6.4%) | 2.0% | |||||||||||||
(-) tax | (132) | (96) | (90) | (75) | (76) | (103) | (119) | (149) | (171) | (160) | (122) | |||||||||||||
effective tax rate | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | (32.8%) | |||||||||||||
3. EBIT (-) tax | 270 | 198 | 184 | 154 | 155 | 212 | 245 | 306 | 350 | 328 | 251 | |||||||||||||
2006 production consisted of 39% ethylene, 20% propylene, 10% benzene, and 31% other by-products | (+) Depreciation & Amortization | 109 | 107 | 105 | 105 | 45 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 31 | ||||||||||||
(-) Capex | (26) | (26) | (27) | (27) | (28) | (28) | (29) | (29) | (30) | (30) | (31) | |||||||||||||
(-) Changes in net operating working capital | 24 | 41 | 4 | 17 | (5) | (42) | (26) | (45) | (35) | 10 | 0 | |||||||||||||
4. Free cash flow to the Firm | 378 | 319 | 266 | 248 | 169 | 150 | 199 | 242 | 297 | 321 | 251 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | (15.5%) | (16.6%) | (6.6%) | (32.2%) | (11.2%) | 33.1% | 21.3% | 23.0% | 7.9% | (21.6%) | |||||||||||||
Note: Annual free cash flow in US$ millions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
51
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions Copesul
Selected income statement drivers
52
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions Copesul (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
53
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions Copesul (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006 | Change in net opera ting working capital | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital | 459 | 557 | 506 | 414 | 406 | 366 | 377 | 478 | 543 | 655 | 744 | 719 | ||||||||||||||
(+) current as sets | 795 | 1,061 | 982 | 795 | 776 | 694 | 714 | 917 | 1,046 | 1,272 | 1,450 | 1,398 | ||||||||||||||
(-) current liabilities | 336 | 504 | 476 | 380 | 370 | 328 | 337 | 439 | 503 | 617 | 706 | 678 | ||||||||||||||
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital | 51 | 92 | 8 | 40 | (11) | (101) | (65) | (112) | (89) | 25 | ||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
54
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Tab F
IPQ
55
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
IPQ DCF valuation
IPQ is a 2nd generation producer of high-end petrochemicals |
2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | Perp. | |||||||||||||
1. EBIT | 87 | 89 | 86 | 73 | 83 | 79 | 86 | 96 | 106 | 104 | 80 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | 2.2% | (3.2%) | (15.9%) | 14.2% | (4.7%) | 8.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% | (2.7%) | 2.0% | |||||||||||||
(-) tax | (22) | (22) | (22) | (18) | (21) | (20) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (26) | (20) | |||||||||||||
effective tax rate | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | (25.0%) | |||||||||||||
65 | 67 | 65 | 54 | 62 | 59 | 64 | 72 | 80 | 78 | |||||||||||||||
3. EBIT (-) tax | 60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation & Amortization | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | |||||||||||||
(-) Capex | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (17) | |||||||||||||
(-) Changes in net operating working capital | 15 | (0) | 0 | (1) | 1 | (1) | (1) | (1) | 1 | (1) | 0 | |||||||||||||
4. Free cash flow to the Firm | 90 | 77 | 75 | 63 | 73 | 68 | 74 | 82 | 91 | 87 | 60 | |||||||||||||
annual growth | n.a. | (15.2%) | (2.3%) | (15.5%) | 14.9% | (6.4%) | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | (3.9%) | (31.5%) | |||||||||||||
Note: Annual free cash flow in US$ millions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
56
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions IPQ
Selected income statement drivers
57
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions IPQ (continued)
Selected income statement drivers
58
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Assumptions IPQ (continued)
Selected balance sheet drivers
Net operating working capital assumptions are in line with 2006 | Change in net operating working capital | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital (R$ million) | 2005A | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | ||||||||||||||
Net operating working capital | (36) | 68 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 38 | 37 | 40 | 41 | 43 | 41 | 43 | ||||||||||||||
(+) current assets | 409 | 619 | 517 | 522 | 474 | 438 | 437 | 462 | 509 | 588 | 570 | 564 | ||||||||||||||
(-) current liabilities | 445 | 551 | 481 | 486 | 439 | 400 | 400 | 422 | 468 | 545 | 529 | 522 | ||||||||||||||
Change in net operating working capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Increase) / Decrease in net operating working capital | 32 | (0) | 1 | (3) | 1 | (3) | (1) | (2) | 2 | (2) | ||||||||||||||||
Source: Based on company information, confirmed by Ipiranga management |
59
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Tab G
Valuation of other assets based on multiples
60
Economic value of assets | Section 3 |
Valuation summary Other
TEV/ 06 | ||||||
Company | Description | TEV (R$mm) | EBITDA | |||
Refinaria de Petróleo Ipiranga (RIPI) |
The business has operated on a break even basis (sometimes given special tax incentives by the State) Valuation based on comparable trading companies |
9 | 6.5x | |||
Ipiranga Química S.A. (IQ) | A chemical products distributor with over 5,000 clients in 50 different markets Valuation based on precedent transactions |
176 | 8.6x | |||
Empresa Carioca de Produtos Químicos S.A. (EMCA) |
A producer of specialty petrochemicals; consolidated by CBPI SA Valuation based on comparable trading companies Comparable sample includes both specialty and commodity petrochemical trading companies |
18 | 6.3x | |||
Ipiranga Asfaltos (IASA) | A producer of asphalt and pavement surface products Valuation based on precedent transactions |
89 | 6.8x | |||
AM/PM Comestíveis | A retail convenience store chain attached to DPPI and CBPI gas stations, consolidated by CBPI Valuation based on comparable trading companies |
236 | 7.5x | |||
Isa-Sul Administração e Part. Ltda. | A subsidiary that owns 152 and operates 15 of the gas stations in DPPIs region Valuation based on the same implied multiple as DPPI |
140 | 8.8x | |||
Note: All valuation based on the median of the sample unless otherwise noted Calculation in US Dollars translated to Reais at 2.14 R$/US$ |
||||||
Source: Company information and Wall Street Research |
61
Final considerations | Section 4 |
Section 4
Final considerations
62
Final considerations | Section 4 |
Share price range
Share price range based on the economic value (R$ per share) | ||||
-5% | Mid-range | +5% | ||
CBPI | 26.97 | 28.39 | 29.81 | |
DPPI | 41.11 | 43.28 | 45.44 | |
RIPI | 51.63 | 54.35 | 57.06 | |
Ultrapar | 64.48 | 67.87 | 71.26 | |
Note: 10% range in compliance with the CVM Resolution #361/02. |
63
Glossary | Section 5 |
Section 5
Glossary
64
Glossary | Section 5 |
Terms used in the report
Beta: beta against the S&P500, a measure of systemic risk
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): methodology used to define the cost of equity
Capex: Capital Expenditures
Cost of Equity
(Ke): return required by the equity holder
Cost of debt(Kd): cost of third party financing
CVM: Comissão de Valores Mobiliários
D&A: depreciation and amortization
Net
debt: Cash and cash equivalents, net position in derivatives, export notes, short and long-term bank loans, receivable and payable dividends, short and long-term receivables and payables related to debentures, short and long-term pension funds
deficits, provisions, and other receivables and payables to related parties, including subscription bonus (bonus de subscricão)
Drivers: value drivers or key drivers
EBIT: Earnings Before Interests and Taxes
EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
EV or TEV: Enterprise value
Equity value: TEV minus net debt
Dollar: American Dollar
DCF: Discounted cash flow
FCFF: Free Cash Flow to Firm
Operating cash flow: relates to cash inflows and outflows
solely related to the operations
65
Glossary | Section 5 |
Terms used in the report (continued)
JCP: interest on capital (Juros sobre Capital Próprio)
LTM: Last twelve months
IPCA: consumer price index
NOPLAT: Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes
ON: Ação Ordinária ordinary or voting share
PN: Ação Preferencial preferred or non-voting share
ERP: equity risk premium is the expected premium for
investing in stocks
CRP: country risk premium is the expected premium for investing in a certain specific country
Spread: price or yield differential
Tag-along: (minority) shareholders
right to join a transaction in which another shareholder (usually controlling shareholder) is selling their stake. In Brazil, the legislation specifies that voting shareholders of public entities have the right to receive a minimum offer of 80% the
price to be paid for control (the 80% tag-along right)
Risk free rate: US Treasury
TJLP: Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo, Brazilian long term interest rate
Terminal value:: value of the company at the end of the projection
NPV: net
present value
VPL: vValor pPresente lLíquido
WACC: Weighted Average Cost of Capital
66
Share price evolution | Appendix I |
Appendix I
Share price evolution
67
Share price evolution | Appendix I |
Weighted average share prices LTM to announcement
Ultrapar (Share price in R$, Volume in 000s) |
RIPI (Share price in R$, Volume in 000s) | |||||||||||||||||
Month |
PN Price | Volume | Month | PN Price | Volume | ON Price | Volume | |||||||||||
March-06(a) | 38.27 | 676 | March-06(a) | 23.61 | 84 | 39.05 | 83 | |||||||||||
April-06 | 36.41 | 990 | April-06 | 24.96 | 665 | 35.83 | 123 | |||||||||||
May-06 | 36.99 | 1,078 | May-06 | 28.95 | 1,134 | 36.52 | 266 | |||||||||||
June-06 | 34.49 | 1,511 | June-06 | 30.59 | 425 | 36.99 | 144 | |||||||||||
July-06 | 33.88 | 1,159 | July-06 | 30.10 | 323 | 36.21 | 72 | |||||||||||
August-06 | 35.51 | 1,503 | August-06 | 31.22 | 497 | 37.35 | 166 | |||||||||||
September-06 | 38.48 | 905 | September-06 | 33.17 | 415 | 38.45 | 56 | |||||||||||
October-06 | 40.40 | 1,296 | October-06 | 35.80 | 437 | 39.69 | 95 | |||||||||||
November-06 | 47.58 | 1,702 | November-06 | 37.01 | 353 | 41.51 | 139 | |||||||||||
December-06 | 47.75 | 1,088 | December-06 | 37.36 | 289 | 42.56 | 93 | |||||||||||
January-07 | 51.07 | 1,938 | January-07 | 37.44 | 568 | 43.72 | 95 | |||||||||||
February-07 | 53.02 | 2,530 | February-07 | 40.63 | 371 | 50.00 | 141 | |||||||||||
March-07(b) | 50.78 | 733 | March-07(b) | 42.54 | 292 | 70.48 | 370 | |||||||||||
WA share price | R$43.1 |
WA share price | R$32.7 | R$45.8 | ||||||||||||||
Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days) | Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days) | |||||||||||||||||
(b) March 1, 2007, to March16, 2007 (16 days) | (b) March 1, 2007, to March16, 2007 (16 days) | |||||||||||||||||
Source: FactSet | Source: FactSet | |||||||||||||||||
CBPI (Share price in R$, Volume in 000s) |
DPPI (Share price in R$, Volume in 000s) | |||||||||||||||||
Month | PN Price | Volume | ON Price | Volume | Month | PN Price | Volume | ON Price | Volume | |||||||||
March-06(a) | 15.65 | 3,401 | 20.00 | 6 | March-06(a) | 23.03 | 38 | 39.00 | 2 | |||||||||
April-06 | 17.94 | 6,389 | 20.75 | 16 | April-06 | 24.01 | 251 | 42.47 | 2 | |||||||||
May-06 | 17.84 | 5,933 | 21.83 | 3 | May-06 | 25.12 | 185 | 38.05 | 2 | |||||||||
June-06 | 17.48 | 5,717 | 20.63 | 7 | June-06 | 24.02 | 398 | 42.92 | 1 | |||||||||
July-06 | 17.02 | 5,001 | 21.83 | 4 | July-06 | 24.09 | 113 | 35.74 | 2 | |||||||||
August-06 | 17.30 | 6,600 | 24.12 | 0 | August-06 | 23.20 | 261 | 32.25 | 2 | |||||||||
September-06 | 17.28 | 4,821 | 21.11 | 3 | September-06 | 23.09 | 115 | 36.54 | 0 | |||||||||
October-06 | 18.78 | 4,459 | 21.29 | 24 | October-06 | 23.08 | 318 | 30.20 | 2 | |||||||||
November-06 | 18.56 | 4,189 | 21.67 | 17 | November-06 | 23.71 | 460 | 27.71 | 1 | |||||||||
December-06 | 18.96 | 4,221 | 21.93 | 23 | December-06 | 25.54 | 316 | 28.69 | 2 | |||||||||
January-07 | 19.18 | 4,891 | 22.22 | 12 | January-07 | 27.98 | 239 | 30.00 | 1 | |||||||||
February-07 | 22.28 | 3,579 | 26.04 | 7 | February-07 | 32.70 | 138 | 35.00 | 0 | |||||||||
March-07(b) | 22.36 | 3,322 | 27.87 | 1 | March-07(b) | 33.08 | 87 | 55.96 | 8 | |||||||||
WA share price | R$18.3 | R$21.7 | WA share price | R$25.0 | R$41.7 | |||||||||||||
Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days) | Notes: (a) March 17, 2006, to March 31, 2006 (15 days) | |||||||||||||||||
(b) March 1, 2007, to March16, 2007 (16 days) | (b) March 1, 2007, to March16, 2007 (16 days) | |||||||||||||||||
Source: FactSet | Source: FactSet |
68
Share price evolution | Appendix I |
Ultrapar
12 months prior to announcement date (R$ per share) | ||||||||
LTM ending 3/16/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | Ultrapar ONs | ||||||
Max | N.A | 56.95 | ||||||
W.A. | N.A | 43.08 | Ultrapars ON shares have not traded in over 12 months | |||||
Min | N.A | 31.77 | There is limited float available less than 3% is held by the public | |||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
Announcement date to April 2, 2007 (R$ per share) | ||||||||
3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | Ultrapar ONs | ||||||
Max | N.A | 63.75 | ||||||
W.A. | N.A | 56.10 | Ultrapars ON shares have not traded in over 12 months | |||||
Min | N.A | 49.29 | There is limited float available less than 3% is held by the public | |||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
69
Share price evolution | Appendix I |
RIPI
12 months prior to announcement date (R$ per share) | ||||||||
LTM ending 3/16/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | |||||||
Max | 80.15 | 45.70 | ||||||
W.A. | 45.81 | 32.75 | ||||||
Min | 34.00 | 22.55 | ||||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
Announcement date to April 2, 2007 (R$ per share) | ||||||||
3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | |||||||
Max | 97.68 | 47.50 | ||||||
W.A. | 91.57 | 44.85 | ||||||
Min | 80.15 | 41.51 | ||||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
70
Share price evolution | Appendix I |
CBPI
12 months prior to announcement date (R$ per share) | ||||||||
LTM ending 3/16/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | |||||||
Max | 30.80 | 23.88 | ||||||
W.A. | 21.72 | 18.32 | ||||||
Min | 20.00 | 14.58 | ||||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
Announcement date to April 2, 2007 (R$ per share) | ||||||||
3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | |||||||
Max | 53.30 | 25.30 | ||||||
W.A. | 52.55 | 23.28 | ||||||
Min | 30.80 | 22.10 | ||||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
71
Share price evolution | Appendix I |
DPPI
12 months prior to announcement date (R$ per share) | ||||||||
LTM ending 3/16/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | |||||||
Max | 60.00 | 34.99 | ||||||
W.A. | 41.69 | 24.99 | ||||||
Min | 27.50 | 22.00 | ||||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
Announcement date to April 2, 2007 (R$ per share) | ||||||||
3/16/2007 to 4/2/2007 | ||||||||
ON - R$ | PN - R$ | |||||||
Max | 102.02 | 38.98 | ||||||
W.A. | 96.53 | 34.69 | ||||||
Min | 60.00 | 33.00 | ||||||
Note: R$ per share | ||||||||
Source: Factset |
72
Comparable multiples | Appendix II |
Appendix II
Comparable multiples
73
Comparable multiples | Appendix II |
Selected comparable multiples Petrochemicals
Comparable public company analysis commodities | ||||||||||||||
3/14/2007 | Market | TEV / EBITDA | TEV / Sales | |||||||||||
Company name |
Share price | Cap. | TEV | 2006A | 2007E | 2006A | 2007E | |||||||
Nova | $29.70 | $2,477 | $4,208 | 6.2x | 5.2x | 0.6x | 0.7x | |||||||
BASF | $100.83 | 50,506 | 65,198 | 4.9x | 4.9x | 0.9x | 0.9x | |||||||
Westlake | $27.32 | 1,784 | 1,992 | 4.9x | 5.1x | 0.8x | 0.7x | |||||||
Dow | $43.38 | 41,949 | 49,950 | 6.4x | 6.4x | 1.0x | 1.0x | |||||||
Lyondell PF(pigments sale) | $30.40 | 7,664 | 14,714 | 4.7x | 4.9x | 0.6x | 0.6x | |||||||
Braskem | $6.46 | 2,332 | 4,484 | 5.7x | 5.6x | 0.8x | 0.9x | |||||||
Suzano Petroquimica | $2.16 | 488 | 1,220 | n.a. | 6.4x | 1.1x | 0.9x | |||||||
Petroquimica União | $4.94 | 518 | 716 | 5.2x | 6.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | |||||||
Mean | 5.5x | 5.6x | 0.8x | 0.8x | ||||||||||
Median | 5.2x | 5.4x | 0.8x | 0.8x | ||||||||||
Max |
6.4x | 6.6x | 1.1x | 1.0x | ||||||||||
Min |
4.7x | 4.9x | 0.5x | 0.5x | ||||||||||
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted. | ||||||||||||||
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg. | ||||||||||||||
Comparable public company analysis specialties | ||||||||||||||
3/14/2007 | Market | EV / EBITDA | EV / Sales | |||||||||||
Company name |
Share price | Cap. | TEV | 2006A | 2007E | 2006A | 2007E | |||||||
Clariant | $16.05 | 3,637 | 4,973 | 6.9x | 6.8x | 0.7x | 0.7x | |||||||
Rhodia | $3.50 | 4,220 | 6,794 | 7.1x | 6.7x | 1.1x | 1.0x | |||||||
Lubrizol | $51.10 | 3,601 | 4,665 | 8.2x | 7.7x | 1.2x | 1.1x | |||||||
Huntsman | $18.94 | 4,433 | 7,432 | 7.7x | 6.4x | 0.8x | 0.8x | |||||||
Celanese | $30.40 | 5,288 | 7,619 | 6.6x | 6.8x | 1.3x | 1.2x | |||||||
Mean | 7.3x | 6.9x | 1.0x | 1.0x | ||||||||||
Median | 7.1x | 6.8x | 1.1x | 1.0x | ||||||||||
Max | 8.2x | 7.7x | 1.3x | 1.2x | ||||||||||
Min | 6.6x | 6.4x | 0.7x | 0.7x | ||||||||||
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted. Sample based on surfactant chemical companies - specialty. | ||||||||||||||
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg. |
74
Comparable multiples | Appendix II |
Selected comparable multiples Chemical distributors & Retail Brazil
Precedent transaction analysis Chemical distributors |
||||||||
TEV/LTM | LTM Metric | |||||||
Target - Buyer | Date | TEV | EBITDA | EBITDA | ||||
ChemCentral - Univar | Mar-07 | $650 | 9.3x | $70 | ||||
INT Muellor Chemical - NIB Capital | Jun-01 | 228 | 8.8x | 26 | ||||
HCI - Brenntag | Nov-00 | 306 | 8.5x | 36 | ||||
Ellis & Everard - Vopak Distribution | Jan-01 | 480 | 6.1x | 79 | ||||
Mean | 8.2x | |||||||
Median | 8.6x | |||||||
Max | 9.3x | |||||||
Min | 6.1x | |||||||
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwi se noted. | ||||||||
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg. | ||||||||
Comparable public company analysis Retail Brazil |
||||||||
Market | TEV/EBITDA |
|||||||
Company name | Cap. | TEV | 2006A | 2007E | ||||
Pao de Acucar - CBD | $4,042 | $4,687 | 7.5x | 5.8x | ||||
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted. | ||||||||
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg. |
75
Comparable multiples | Appendix II |
Selected comparable multiples Refiners and Asphalt producers
Comparable public company analysis Refiners |
||||||||||||||||||
Share price | Market | TEV / EBITDA | Price to earnings | |||||||||||||||
Company | 3/23/2007 | Cap | TEV | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | 2006A | 2007E | 2008E | |||||||||
Alon USA | $36.30 | $1,699 | $2,175 | 8.7x | 6.6x | 8.4x | 14.4x | 10.6x | 13.4x | |||||||||
Delek US Holdings | 18.77 | 973 | 1,158 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 11.1 | |||||||||
Frontier Oil | 33.08 | 3,628 | 3,372 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 12.9 | |||||||||
Average | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 12.5 | ||||||||||||
Median | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 12.9 | ||||||||||||
Max | 8.7 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 13.4 | ||||||||||||
Min | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 11.1 | ||||||||||||
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted. | ||||||||||||||||||
Market Cap. includes options and in-the-money convertibles. | ||||||||||||||||||
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg. | ||||||||||||||||||
Precedent transaction analysis Asphalt producers | ||||||||||||||||||
TEV / | TEV / | |||||||||||||||||
Target / Buyer |
Date | TEV | LTM EBITDA | LTM Sales | ||||||||||||||
Frehner Construction / Aggregate Industries | 5/11/2004 | 95.8 | NA | 0.6x | ||||||||||||||
Better Materials Corp. / Hanson Building Materials | 7/18/2003 | 155 | 7.3x | 1.3x | ||||||||||||||
S.E. Johnson / CRH plc | 5/16/2003 | 177 | 6.3x | 0.7x | ||||||||||||||
Kiewit Materials / CSR | 10/2/2002 | 648 | 8.8x | 1.3x | ||||||||||||||
Mount Hope Rock Products / CRH plc | 4/30/2001 | 138 | 7.3x | 1.3x | ||||||||||||||
Northern Ohio Paving and Dolomite Group / CRH plc | 6/21/2000 | 172 | 5.9x | 1.3x | ||||||||||||||
The Shelly Company / CRH plc | 2/24/2000 | 362 | 5.7x | 1.1x | ||||||||||||||
Thompson-McCully / CRH plc | 7/12/1999 | 422 | 8.0x | 1.7x | ||||||||||||||
Dell Contractors and Millington Quarry / CRH plc | 7/5/1999 | 146 | 5.6x | 1.0x | ||||||||||||||
MA Segale - Icon Materials / CRH plc | 5/1/1998 | 60 | NA | 1.2x | ||||||||||||||
Mean | 6.9x | 1.1x | ||||||||||||||||
Median | 6.8x | 1.2x | ||||||||||||||||
Max | 8.8x | 1.7x | ||||||||||||||||
Min | 5.6x | 0.6x | ||||||||||||||||
Notes: All figures in US$ million unless otherwise noted. | ||||||||||||||||||
CRH plc was previously known as Oldcastle Materials | ||||||||||||||||||
Source: Companies information, FactSet and Bloomberg. |
76
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
Date: March 13, 2008
BRASKEM S.A. | |||
By: | /s/ Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho | ||
Name: | Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho | ||
Title: | Chief Financial Officer |
This press release may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are statements that are not historical facts, and are based on management's current view and estimates offuture economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. The words "anticipates", "believes", "estimates", "expects", "plans" and similar expressions, as they relate to the company, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Statements regarding the declaration or payment of dividends, the implementation of principal operating and financing strategies and capital expenditure plans, the direction of future operations and the factors or trends affecting financial condition, liquidity or results of operations are examples of forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect the current views of management and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. There is no guarantee that the expected events, trends or results will a ctually occur. The statements are based on many assumptions and factors, including general economic and market conditions, industry conditions, and operating factors. Any changes in such assumptions or factors could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations.