Amprius Technologies (NYSE: AMPX) is an emerging lithium-ion battery disruptor. The company’s silicon anode design provides greater density, quicker charge time, and higher discharge rates, making them a perfect fit for virtually any application. The company is ramping up production as quickly as possible, recently inaugurating its Amprius Labs facility upgrade, which improved capacity 10X.
Even so, it can’t meet customer demand and is on track to ramp production again in 2025. There is a facility in Colorado on track for operations to commence soon, which will allow the company to take on new business. Current customers include the US Army, which buys batteries for mission-critical man-portable applications and drones, and prominent aerospace manufacturers and defense contractors such as Airbus and Teledyne FLIR (NYSE: TDY).
Among the commercial applications is EV flight. The company’s batteries are perfect for EVTOL applications such as JOBY Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) and Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR).
Insiders' sales are not a problem; dilutive sales might be
Insiders have been selling shares of Amprius Technologies, but it does not pose a significant problem for the stock price. The sales are made primarily by two insiders, including a director, and are small and periodic. Insiders still own a solid 15% of the stock, showing significant skin in the game, but other worries exist.
Amprius Technologies is issuing shares to raise capital. The company increased its outstanding share count by 3.6% YTD at the end of last quarter and has made additional sales since. Some of the increase is attributable to share-based compensation and warrants exercised in the period but is dilutive nonetheless. Also, losses accumulate and erode shareholder equity, adding downward pressure to the stock price.
Institutions warm to Amprius: Analysts see value in Amprius
Insider sales are offset to a degree by the institutions. The institutions own a small 8% of the stock, but they’ve been buying on balance the last few quarters, and activity is ramping. Ownership is light but broad, including some funds and private capital. The top three holders are Invesco, Vanguard, and BlackRock, which account for about 3.5% of the total.
The analysts are more bullish on the stock. The stock picked up several analysts in Q4, cementing its Buy rating. The consensus of eight suggests this stock will advance at least 200%, and the range's low-end suggests the price action could rise swiftly when it advances; it assumes a 165% upside. The latest is from Roth Capital, reiterating a Buy rating in January 2024.
The next visible catalyst will come in mid-March with the Q4 earnings report. Analysts expect revenue growth to accelerate to 265% but may be underestimating business strength. The $2.88 million is a slim $0.08 million in sequential growth that does not factor in purchase orders received in December and the launch of the SiCore platform. SiCore is a new line of silicon anode batteries in various sizes, offering greater power and longer life than traditional batteries.
The technical outlook: Amprius Technologies is at rock bottom
The price action in Amprius Technologies is lackluster but appears to be at rock bottom. The market is moving sideways within a range, showing solid support near $3.50. The stock price will likely retest that level without a catalyst to alter the direction, but a show of support is expected.
Among the risks is a lack of market interest. The stock trading volume has been low and falling in recent weeks. Without a catalyst to support interest, the market for the stock could fall critical support. If the market confirms support, the price will likely continue sideways within the range. However, a move below $3.50 could take this market to an even lower price level.
