The Biden administration released a draft report on Tuesday warning of potentially negative impacts to Americans should the president's moratorium on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports be lifted.
The report, which concludes that growth in LNG exports could cause U.S. energy prices to climb by as much as 30% in coming years while contributing to carbon emissions, was quickly met with pushback by energy industry officials dismissing it as a "politically motivated" appeal to environmentalists. Meanwhile, one environmental group panned the same report as "weak and half-hearted."
The study comes weeks before President-elect Donald Trump is to take office and follows on President Biden's decision in January to pause all new U.S. LNG exports to non-Free Trade Agreement countries, citing the need to better consider climate and economic impacts of such "sizeable" growth in sales of LNG to buyers in Asia and Europe. President-elect Trump vowed on the campaign trail to quickly reverse Biden's moratorium once he's in office.
The draft report analysis, which is now open for a 60-day comment period, found that U.S. LNG growth could cause prices to rise for U.S. consumers by as much as 30% in the near-term. Additionally, while it stopped short of recommending a full ban on LNG exports — in recognition of near-term demand from other countries — it also focused largely on the negative impacts for U.S. consumers, who Energy Department officials said could see energy prices rise by roughly $100 by 2050 as a result of the tighter demand.
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The analysis noted that boosting U.S. LNG exports beyond currently authorized levels could cause as much as 1.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent emissions into the atmosphere by 2050, or roughly 25% of the nation’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.
However, industry groups have pushed back on this assertion. One senior industry official told Fox News Digital that that data set models for a scenario that assumes the growth in LNG exports does not substitute any other forms of energy consumption, such as coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. In reality, this person noted, LNG is expected to help offset emissions from coal use in the EU and elsewhere by as much as 50-60%, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency.
While the analysis found that increasing exports would result in a roughly 0.2% rise in U.S. GDP, Energy Department officials told reporters Tuesday that the increase in GDP "does not necessarily correlate with a positive effect on broader public and consumer welfare."
In a statement released alongside the report, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm noted that increasing LNG exports would "generate wealth for the owners of export facilities and create jobs across the natural gas supply chain," but she suggested that the domestic price of natural gas would increase.
The study comes as U.S. sales of the chilled natural gas have boomed. The U.S. rose in 2023 to become the world’s No. 1 exporter of LNG, and current capacity is already slated to double by the end of the decade on the backs of current projects, according to estimates from the Energy Information Administration.
It also comes as Russia’s war in Ukraine has sparked new demand from U.S. allies in Europe, who have scrambled to purchase LNG to offset lost Russian piped gas, and Japan, an import-dependent nation that receives as much as 90% of its energy from outside suppliers.
The report, released just weeks before Trump assumes office on Jan. 20, sparked backlash from natural gas advocates.
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"Today’s report from Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is clearly a politically motivated document designed for an audience who believes no form of carbon-based energy is acceptable," National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) CEO and President Jay Timmons said in a statement. "LNG exports play a crucial role in reducing emissions by providing cleaner energy alternatives to countries reliant on higher emission sources."
For its part, NAM conducted a study on the ban that found nearly 1 million jobs would be threatened by the LNG pause over the next two decades if the restriction remains in place, Fox News Digital previously reported.
American Gas Association CEO and President Karen Harbert described the report as a "clear and inexplicable attempt to justify their grave policy error."
"America’s allies are suffering from the weaponization of natural gas and energy deprivation and any limitations on supplying life essential energy is absolutely wrong-headed," Harbert said in a statement, adding, "The Biden Administration’s pause on American LNG exports was a mistake that resulted in uncertainty for the market, for investors, and for America’s allies around the world."
The report is not without its critics from the left, however.
The environmental group, Food & Water Watch, also slammed the Biden administration for the "weak" report cautioning LNG exports.
"This study mirrors the Biden administration’s entire four-year approach to advancing a clean energy future: weak and half-hearted," Jim Walsh, Food & Water Watch policy director, said in a statement. "We cannot continue to be victimized by the profit-driven agenda of fossil fuel corporations. President Biden must listen to the warnings of his own government by banning further LNG exports and rejecting pending LNG permits before he leaves office."
President-elect Trump, for his part, has also repeatedly pledged to undo the LNG pause upon taking office and to "unleash" U.S. energy exports, blaming high costs and supply issues on the outgoing Biden administration.
In October, he vowed at a campaign rally that U.S. residents would see their energy prices cut "in half" within one year of his inauguration.
Most recently, he vowed to "go strong on the issue" by moving to immediately lift Biden’s LNG pause to allow for new LNG exports after his inauguration, sources familiar with the transition plans told Reuters.
