What's Next For Gold? Gold and the Changing Economic Landscape |
Agenda Welcome and Opening Remarks Tom Anderson Vice President, Head of ETF Strategy & Research State Street Global Advisors Gold and The Changing Economic Landscape - The Financial Crisis - The US Recession - The Recession "After Shocks" Natalie Dempster Head of Investment, North America World Gold Council Accessing the Gold Market Tom Anderson Q&A |
Introducing World Gold Council Funded by the world's leading gold mining companies We promote the use of gold in all its forms through marketing activities in major international markets. Offices in key consuming countries: India China Middle East United States MEMBERS Agnico Eagle AngloGold Ashanti Barrick Gold Corporation Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation Compania de Minas Buenaventura Eldorado Gold Goldcorp Gold Fields Limited Harmony IAM Gold Kinross Gold Corporation Newmont Mining Corporation Peter Hambro Mining Yamana Gold ASSOCIATES Cedimin China National Gold Corporation The Hutti Gold Mines Company Kahama Mining Minera Yanacocha S.R.L. Mitsubishi Materials Corporation Royal Gold Inc. |
Gold as a safe-haven during the financial crisis |
Gold moves independently from other commodities |
Including oil..... |
Investors have bought record amounts of gold ETFs |
Purchases of coins and bars soar |
Gold does not just have a role to play during times of crisis |
The Structure of the Gold Market |
Factors affecting demand and supply Religious festivals Indian Wedding Season Monsoon Exploration spending Mine construction New gold discoveries Strategic decisions on gold reserves Jewelry marketing Financial and economic crisis Dollar Extraction costs, e.g. Tractors, Rubber Volatility Electronics demand Political risks Mining lead times Desirability The Catwalk Tourism in the Middle East Chinese NY Inflation Producer hedging/ de-hedging |
There is no correlation between US GDP growth and the gold price |
Gold price performance during recessionary periods |
The aftershocks: (1) Portfolio diversification |
The after shocks: (2) From opaque to transparent Tighter regulations Tighter reporting Investable assets might change Complex derivative products, exotic structured products no longer in vogue Or fund of funds, where the underlying investments are not clear. Residual concerns about counterparty risk likely to linger Gold is simple to understand, it has intrinsic value beyond that of an investment product and it has no counterparty risk. |
The after shocks (3): The re-emergence of inflation Fed Funds Target Rate of "0 to 1/4 %" Massive injections of liquidity into the banking system Quantitative easing measures A large fiscal stimulus package = Future Inflation (?) |
Gold performs well in a high inflation environment |
Gold and deflation Many traditional assets, like equities, perform poorly in a deflationary environment. Because the gold price was fixed for much of the period between 1871 and 1971, gold's price performance during the Great Depression is not relevant. Neither gold mining stocks nor silver serve as a good proxy. During the deflationary period between 1813 and 1851, the price of gold was relatively constant. In 1813 it was U$19.83/oz, by 1828 - no data are available for the remainder of the period - it was US$19.03/oz, having traded in a range of US$17.52- US$20.82/oz. |
After shock (4): The largest deficit since 1945 |
Gold as a dollar hedge |
Ways to access the gold market Coins and bars Allocated and unallocated accounts Futures, options & other derivative products, including structured products linked to the gold price Gold funds Share ownership in gold mining companies. |
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Ticker GLD NAV Ticker GLDIV Cusip 78463V107 Inception Date 11/12/2004 Expense Ratio 0.40% Objective Designed to track price of gold (less expenses) Structure Continuously offered investment trust Initial Pricing Based on price of 1/10 ounce of gold Allocated Gold The Trust's allocated gold bullion is kept in the form of London Good Delivery bars (400 oz.) and held in an allocated account Storage The gold bullion is held by the Custodian, HSBC Bank USA, in its London vault. Assets ($ Mil) $33,286 Source: State Street Strategy & Research, As of 3/31/09 |
US Fixed Income 6.96% Intn'l Equities 11.63% Gold 31.92% Highest Return Lowest Return Source: Zephyr Style Advisor, SSgA Strategy & Research as of December 31, 2008 Gold Price-London PM Fix, Gold; S&P 500 Index, US Equities; Citigroup 3-Month T-bill, Cash; Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index, US Fixed Income; MSCI EAFE Index, International Equities; DJ Wilshire REIT Annual Performance by Investment Style and Market Cap 1998 US Equities 28.58% US Fixed Income 8.67% Cash 5.06% Gold -0.83% Real Estate -17.01% Intn'l Equities 20.33% 1999 Intn'l Equities 27.30% Cash 4.74% Gold 0.85% US Fixed Income -0.83% Real Estate -2.58% US Equities 21.04% 2000 Real Estate 31.04% Cash 5.96% Gold -5.44% US Equities -9.11% Intn'l Equities -13.96% US Fixed Income 11.63% 2001 Real Estate 12.35% Cash 4.09% Gold 0.75% US Equities -11.88% Intn'l Equities -21.21% US Fixed Income 8.42% 2002 Gold 25.57% Real Estate 3.58% Cash 1.70% Intn'l Equities -15.66% US Equities -22.10% US Fixed Income 10.27% 2003 Intn'l Equities 39.17% US Equities 28.68% Gold 19.89% US Fixed Income 4.11% Cash 1.07% Real Estate 36.18% 2004 Real Estate 33.16% US Equities 10.88% Gold 4.65% US Fixed Income 4.34% Cash 1.24% Intn'l Equities 20.70% 2005 Real Estate 13.82% Cash 3.00% Gold 17.77% US Equities 4.91% Intn'l Equities 14.02% Real Estate 35.97% Cash 4.76% Gold 23.20% US Equities 15.79% Intn'l Equities 26.86% US Fixed Income 4.33% Real Estate -17.55% Cash 4.74% US Equities 5.20% 2006 US Fixed Income 2.43% 2007 2008 US Fixed Income 5.24% Gold 4.32% Cash 1.80% US Equities -37.00% Real Estate -39.20% Intn'l Equities -43.06% |
Why Invest in Gold Effective Portfolio Diversifier Source: Zephyr Style Advisor, SSgA Strategy & Research Gold Price-London PM Fix, Gold; S&P 500 Index, US Equities; Citigroup 3-Month T-bill, Cash; Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index, US Fixed Income; MSCI EAFE Index, International Equities; DJ Wilshire REIT Index, Real Estate: 20 Year Correlations with Gold January 1989 - December 2008 |
Gold-Spot Price vs. Futures Spot Gold: The spot gold price refers to the price of gold for immediate delivery. Spot Gold vs. Gold Futures: There is usually a difference between the spot price of gold and the future price. The future price is used for futures contracts and represents the price to be paid on the date of a delivery of gold in the future. In normal markets the futures price for gold is higher than the spot. |
Tax Treatment of GLD SPDR Gold Shares received a private letter ruling permitting investment by such retirement plans such as IRAs and 401ks The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) treats gold as a collectible for long-term capital gains tax purposes. Capital gains recognized by individuals from the sale of SPDR Gold Shares are subject to a capital gains rate of 28% if held for more than one year. |
Benefits of SPDR(r) Gold Shares Access & Ownership New York Stock Exchange Arca listed (NYSE Arca Ticker: GLD) Cost-Effective Typically less than cost of buying, storing and insuring physical gold Liquid Liquidity not limited to secondary trading on NYSE Arca Underpinned by liquidity of the 24-hour global over-the-counter market for gold SPDR(r) Gold Shares may be created and redeemed to meet market demand Transparent The price, holdings and NAV of Gold Shares can be tracked daily at: www.spdrgoldshares.com |
SPDR(r) Gold Shares GLD |
APPENDIX A: Disclosure |
Important Disclosure Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This document includes "forward-looking statements" which generally relate to future events or future performance. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as "may," "will," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "predict," "potential" or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All statements (other than statements of historical fact) included in this document that address activities, events or developments that will or may occur in the future, including such matters as changes in commodity prices and market conditions (for gold and the Shares), the Trust's operations, the Sponsor's plans and references to the Trust's future success and other similar matters are forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that these statements are only projections. Actual events or results may differ materially. These statements are based upon certain assumptions and analyses the Sponsor made based on its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors believed appropriate in the circumstances. Whether or not actual results and developments will conform to the Sponsor's expectations and predictions, however, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to fluctuations in the price of gold; reductions in the amount of gold represented by each Share due to the payment of Trust expenses and the impact of the termination of the fee reduction under the Trust Indenture; purchasing activity in the gold market associated with the purchase of Baskets from the Trust; the lack of experience of the Sponsor and its management in operating an investment vehicle such as the Trust; unanticipated operational or trading problems; the lack of protections associated with ownership of shares in an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or the protections afforded by the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936; the lack of a market for the Shares; the level of support from the World Gold Council; competition from other methods of investing in gold; the impact of large-scale distress sales of gold in times of crisis; the impact of substantial sales of gold by the official sector; the effect of a widening of interest rate differentials between the cost of money and the cost of gold; the loss, damage, theft or restrictions on access to the Trust's gold; the lack of adequate sources of recovery if the Trust's gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed, including a lack of insurance; the failure of gold bullion allocated to the Trust to meet the London Good Delivery Standards; the failure of sub-custodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trust's gold; the limited ability of the Trustee and the Custodian to take legal action against sub-custodians; the insolvency of the Custodian; the Trust's obligation to reimburse the Purchaser and the Market Agent for certain liabilities in the event the Sponsor fails to indemnify them; competing claims over ownership of intellectual property rights related to the Trust; and other factors identified in the "Risk Factors" section of the Prospectus filed with the SEC and in other filings made by the Trust from time to time with the SEC. Consequently, all the forward-looking statements made in this material are qualified by these cautionary statements, and there can be no assurance that the actual results or developments the Sponsor or Marketing Agent anticipates will be realized or, even if substantially realized, that they will result in the expected consequences to, or have the expected effects on, the Trust's operations or the value of the Shares. Neither the Sponsor, Marketing Agent nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the forward-looking statements. Neither the Trust, Marketing Agent nor the Sponsor is under a duty to update any of the forward- looking statements to conform such statements to actual results or to reflect a change in the Sponsor's or Marketing Agent's expectation or projections. The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially adversely affect an investment in the Shares. Investors should be aware that there is no assurance that gold will maintain its long-term value in terms of purchasing power in the future. In the event that the price of gold declines, the Sponsor expects the value of an investment in the Shares to decline proportionately. Shareholders of the Gold Trust will not have the protections associated with ownership of shares in an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or the protections afforded by the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936. The Trust is not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not required to register under such act. Neither the Sponsor nor the Trustee is subject to regulation by the CFTC. Shareholders will not have the regulatory protections provided to investors in CEA-regulated instruments or commodity pools. The "SPDR" trademark is used under license from The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and the SPDR(r) Gold Trust is permitted to use the "SPDR" trademark pursuant to a sublicense from the Marketing Agent. No financial product offered by SPDR(r) Gold Trust, or its affiliates is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. ("McGraw-Hill"). McGraw-Hill makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners of any financial product or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in financial products particularly or the ability of the index on which financial products are based to track general stock market performance. McGraw-Hill is not responsible for and has not participated in any determination or calculation made with respect to issuance or redemption of financial products. McGraw-Hill has no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of financial products. WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT SHALL McGRAW-HILL HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. For more complete information, please call 866.320.4053 or visit www.spdrgoldshares.com Marketed by State Street Global Markets, LLC, an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors. IBG-0069 Exp date: 3/31/2010 |