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Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-167132
March 11, 2011
Gold: The Old and New Currency
BY RIC THOMAS, CFA, HEAD OF ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS, ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGIES, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS
Few topics are met with more derision among professional investors than gold. A common refrain
is that there are few productive uses for gold, and therefore, it should have no intrinsic value.
These feelings are best summed up by Warren Buffett, who said in a 1998 speech at Harvard, It gets
dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it
again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars
would be scratching their head.
And yet, we do know that gold has value, as
evidenced by a roughly four-fold increase in its price
since Mr. Buffett made his Harvard speech. It trades
openly in the market via liquid futures contracts and
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). In addition, individuals buy
and sell physical gold bullion directly in thousands of
small retail stores throughout the world. In 2009, over
2,500 metric tonnes of gold were dug up while over 3,400
metric tonnes were purchased, necessitating significant
amounts of recycled gold to meet the supply shortfall.
Current demand trends show that jewelry (57%), investment
(31%) and industrial usage (12%) constitute the bulk of
final gold sales.
In fact, surging demand has led to an increase in
innovative ways to invest in gold. First, both
individual and institutional investors have shown
increasing interest in gold ETFs and likely view these
investments as a substitute for holding cash. The
explosive growth in gold ETFs likely reflects a desire
among some investors to move away from a fractional
reserve banking system since gold ETFs are fully backed
by physical gold stored in vaults.1 More
recently, some traditional investment strategies are
now using gold as the base currency, going as far as
pricing the net asset value in gold ounces.
Why do we care about gold, what are its merits as an
investment and how much of it should we own? To understand
these questions, it is best to review golds historical
role as a medium of exchange (money). In a world where a
central bank can freely create monetary reserves and
expand the money supply, monetary inflation can erode the
real purchasing power of paper currencies. Golds
historical role as a hard currency makes it trade dear
when concerns about monetary policy are the greatest. In
this sense, gold can be viewed as a hedge, quite possibly
the very best hedge, against easy monetary policy,
currency depreciation and inflation. Unquestionably,
hedging an investment plans stored value merits
consideration in any investment plan.
GOLD AS MONEY
A moneyless world is a world where barter is the
only means of exchange. A barter economy makes
specialization almost
impossible. In this world, a plumber can only eat if he
can find a farmer who needs his toilet repaired.
Therefore, in a moneyless world, an individual is best
served to have both plumbing and farming skills. Money
allows both the plumber and the farmer to specialize since
each is willing to exchange their services and goods for
money.
Money evolved naturally from ancient civilizations,
and gold became the natural medium of exchange. Gold
earned this status organically, since it was universally
accepted as a luxury and carried universally accepted
intrinsic value. Ancient Mesopotamia crafted jewelry from
gold as far back as 2600 BC, and the civilization of Lydia
minted gold coins, many of which still exist as collectors
items, as far back as the year 560 BC. Consider this
evidence as a robust 4,500 year back-test of golds
intrinsic value. Because of this intrinsic value, it is
readily acceptable to both plumbers and farmers, who would
gladly exchange their services for gold.
Gold is also homogeneous and divisible. Diamonds, by
contrast, are not. Two diamonds of equal size and weight
can have dramatically different values depending on the
quality and clarity of each. In addition, you cannot melt,
or cut a diamond down and make the parts a linear function
of the whole. This renders diamonds, and other jewels,
almost useless as a medium of exchange.
These are the qualities that have allowed gold to evolve
into the world monetary standard over the ages. Gold is a
commodity, an essential characteristic for money. It is
homogenous, divisible, luxurious, portable and durable.
Very few commodities contain all of these characteristics.
In American history, the term dollar was a unit of
measurement, defined as approximately 1/20th of an ounce of
gold. The word dollar derives its name from a blacksmith,
known as The Count of Schlick, who minted coins in the 16th
century. Schlick lived in the Bohemian town of
Joachimisthal and minted metal coins of a specific weight
that became known as Joachims thalers. Over the course
of time the word thaler morphed into dollar. Likewise,
the British pound sterling originally indicated one pound
of silver. Historically, words like dollar and pound
sterling were units of measurement of precious metals. The
importance of golds historical relationship to money
cannot be underestimated, though it often is. It likely
gives gold a special premium to its intrinsic value and
this premium will rise and fall depending on confidence in
central bank policy and in fiat currencies or currencies
with no intrinsic value.
THE ROLE OF MONEY
Money has three purposes. It is a medium of
exchange, a unit of account and a store of value. In
general, fiat currencies do a good job of fulfilling the
first two functions, but they have failed to achieve the
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Importantly, while none of the gold is lent out, the shares
that represent the gold can be lent.
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third objective. Measured in US dollars, the world
equity markets performance has been relatively flat over
the past ten years. As shown in Figure 1, the returns to
the market look much bleaker when measured in a hard
currency, such as gold.
Source: MSCI, FactSet Prices.
By contrast, the cost of many other goods and
services look much more stable when measured in gold than
in paper currencies. Gold advocates are quick to produce
charts showing that the cost of a college tuition and of
buying a house have hardly changed, measured in gold, over
the past century.
Still, gold skeptics point out that over sustained periods
investors can maintain, and grow, the purchasing power in
their investment plan by investing their cash into
short-term instruments, stocks, bonds and other asset
classes, which all should offer a real inflation-adjusted
return premium. True enough, but this puts that cash at
default risk, since the cash is now someone elses
liability. The upshot is that risk-averse investors who
demand to hold money have few means to maintain purchasing
power without exposing their cash to default risk. This
dynamic increases the attractiveness of gold, especially
when interest rates are low as they currently are, and the
opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing metal is
low.
HOW MUCH GOLD SHOULD A PENSION FUND OWN?
To date, gold has not gained great acceptance as a
core pension fund holding. First, to the extent gold is
viewed as a cash substitute, a high exposure makes little
sense for a fund with long-dated liabilities. Second,
many investors question whether or not gold offers a real
return. Finally, like all commodities, gold pays neither
dividends, nor interest. Most studies show that the
average pension fund allocates less than 5% to
commodities, and since gold represents a small portion of
most commodity indexes, its average pension allocation is
likely well below 1%.
Yet, even with conservative return estimates, golds
diversification benefits suggest a small, but measurable,
strategic allocation is in order. A statistical asset
allocation study in 2006 estimated that the optimal pension
allocation to gold should be between 2.0% and 4.0%, using a
conservative real return expectation of 0.2 An
allocation of this size was consistent with a moderate
level of total portfolio risk of 5-9%. The study showed
that the allocation to gold came at the expense of other
asset classes in roughly equal proportions. Golds low
correlation to other asset classes indicated it was not a
substitute for any one asset class but was able to improve
portfolio optimality across the risk spectrum.
Empirical data and new innovations are likely to further
entice some pension funds. Since August of 1971, when the
US closed the gold window, effectively removing the
dollar from the gold exchange standard, gold has risen
9.4% annualized, fully 5% more than the US consumer price
index. This 5% real return exceeded most analyst
expectations.
Most of the return came within two sustained periods of
monetary ease: 1971-1980 and 2002-2010 as shown in Figure
2. Figure 2 demonstrates golds effectiveness as a hedge
against sustained periods of monetary ease, by relating
real short-term rates in the US to rising and falling gold
markets.3
NEW INNOVATIONSGOLD HEDGED INVESTMENT STRATEGIES
Some investors have expressed concern that gold
investments offer no dividends or interest payments.
Naturally, the marketplace is responding to this concern
by developing investment strategies with
share classes that are priced in gold ounces. This
innovation allows an investor to have exposure to price
movements in gold within an investment strategy that also
pays dividends. Hedge Funds began offering gold-priced
share classes in the past few years. But now index
providers are also creating gold-hedged investment
strategies.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FactSet Prices, Federal Reserve.
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Michaud, Richard, Robert Michaud, and Katharine Pulvermacher. Gold As a Strategic
Asset. World Gold Council Research Report. September, 2006. |
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The real short rate is calculated by subtracting the year-over-year percentage change
in the CPI from the current nominal federal funds rate. |
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Precise in a world that isntSM:
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FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC USE.
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In 2009, Standard & Poors launched its S&P
500® Gold Hedged Index. The index is run in the
same manner as any dollar based investment with a currency
overlay. So if an investor contributes $100 to the fund,
the strategy will purchase $100 worth of notional S&P 500
futures contracts as well as $100 worth of notional gold
futures contracts.
The latter transaction is equivalent to entering a swap
that receives the difference between the change in the
$/gold ratio. It is also identical to porting the change in
the exchange rate onto the S&P 500. Transactions of this
type are common with regards to the Euro, Yen, Pounds and
other currencies and will likely become more common among
commodities, such as gold, oil and copper. Since monetary
authorities cannot print commodities by means of a book
entry, commodities cannot easily be devalued, and this
dynamic is likely to increase the attractiveness of pricing
strategies in non-printable commodities.
One caveat is that ownership in gold-hedged strategies
is different from taking direct ownership in physical
gold or in ETFs backed by physical gold. In a hedged
strategy, an investor does not physically own gold.
Rather they are simply exposed to the price movement of
gold and, therefore, bear counterparty risk. This risk
may be highest just when gold is in most demand. A
hedged strategy is of interest to investors who fear
inflation or wish to express an outright bullish
position on gold within an investment strategy.
CONCLUSION
Gold continues to be a source of great debate and
great interest among investors. To date, most of the
investment demand has centered on individual investors. But
pension funds are likely to increase their appetite for
gold, as the demands for an alternative currency and a
desire to hedge inflation risk and its twin, currency
depreciation, are growing. Recent statistical analysis
shows a strategic 24% allocation to gold can raise total
portfolio optimality for balanced portfolios.
Gold ETFs serve as a proxy for a gold-standard banking
system with 100% reserve requirements. In addition,
financial products are now making gold a unit of account,
fulfilling the second role of money and pricing their
shares in gold, or at least hedging into gold. The demand
for gold today mirrors the demand for gold 4,000 years ago.
Despite its robust global demand over the past 4,000 years,
its successful track record of hedging inflation and its
exceptional appeal as an alternative currency, there are
still many professional investors who question whether or
not gold has any intrinsic value. But thats changing.
Certainly, anyone watching those skeptics from Mars
might now be scratching their head.
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Precise in a world that isntSM:
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FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC USE.
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STATE STREET GLOBAL MARKETS, LLC
State Street
Financial Center
One Lincoln Street
Boston, MA 02111
866.320.4053
www.spdrgoldshares.com
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC USE.
IMPORTANT RISK INFORMATION
This material is for your private information. The views expressed in this material are the views
of Ric Thomas through the period ended January 27, 2011 and are subject to change based on market
and other conditions. The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should
not be relied on as such. All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but
its accuracy is not guaranteed. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed
forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future
performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Past
performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Investing in gold, commodities or other precious metals is a speculative activity. Prices are
affected by factors such as cyclical economic conditions, political events and monetary policies of
various countries. Gold, commodities and other precious metals are also subject to governmental
action for political reasons. Markets, therefore, may be volatile and there may be sharp
fluctuations in prices.
ETFs trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices
above or below the ETFs net asset value. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce
returns.
Neither diversification nor asset allocation ensure profit or guarantee against loss.
Frequent trading of ETFs could significantly increase commissions and other costs such that they
may offset any savings from low fees or costs.
Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market
movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or
political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs
in the underlying commodities.
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the offering to which this communication relates.
Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other
documents GLD has filed with the SEC for more complete information about GLD and this offering. You
may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov or by visiting
www.spdrgoldshares.com. Alternatively, the Trust or any authorized participant will arrange to send
you the prospectus if you request it by calling 1-866-320-4053.
GLD shares trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value.
The value of GLD shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by GLD (less its expenses),
and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially and adversely affect an investment in the
shares. The price received upon the sale of the shares, which trade at market price, may be more or
less than the value of the gold represented by them. There can be no assurance that the active
trading market for GLD shares will be maintained. GLD does not generate any income, and as GLD
regularly sells gold to pay for its ongoing expenses, the amount of gold represented by each Share
will decline over time. Investing involves risk, and you could lose money on an investment in GLD.
Please see the GLD prospectus for a detailed discussion of the risks of investing in GLD shares.
SPDR is a registered trademark of Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC (S&P) and has been
licensed for use by State Street Corporation. STANDARD & POORS, S&P, and S&P 500 are registered
trademarks of Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC. No financial product offered by State
Street Corporation or its affiliates is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P or its
affiliates, and S&P and its affiliates make no representation, warranty or condition regarding the
advisability of buying, selling or holding units/shares in such products. Further limitations that
could affect investors rights may be found in GLDs prospectus.
The Trust is sponsored by World Gold Trust Services, LLC (the Sponsor), a wholly-owned subsidiary
of the World Gold Council. State Street Global Markets, LLC (the Marketing Agent) is the
marketing agent of the Trust and an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors.
For more information: State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Boston, MA, 02111 866.320.4053 www.spdrgoldshares.com.
Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value
©2011 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved. IBG-3323 Exp. Date: 1/31/2012 IBG.G.GLD.ONC.0311
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Precise in a world that isntSM:
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FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC USE.
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SPDR® GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should
read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with
the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these
documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust
or any Authorized Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling
toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street,
Attn: SPDR® Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.