Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) stock price has been left in the dust as gold and copper prices surge. The stock was trading at $18.32 this week, which is 0.44% below where it started the year. It has dropped by over 7.45% in the past 12 months.

Barrick Gold, one of the biggest gold mining companies in the world with a market cap of more than $31 billion. It is also a big player in the copper mining industry.

Barrick Gold tends to do well when the price of gold and copper is doing well. However, this trend is not happening this year. Indeed, while gold has surged to a record high, Barrick remains 36% below its highest point in August 2021.

Copper price has also jumped sharply this year, which is a sign that the world economy is doing well. Copper is often seen as a barometer for the global economy.

Therefore, it is quite ironic that the stock has not done better this year. I believe that this performance is that Barrick Gold’s production is not doing well.

The company produced 4.05 Moz of gold in 2023 and the company expects that its production this year will be between 3.9 and 4.3 Moz. The same trend is also happening in the copper market, where production stood at 420 Mlbs in 2023.

At the same time, the mining costs have continued rising. The cost of producing an ounce of gold rose to over $1,300 in 2023, up from $1,200 in 2022. The same is true for copper mining costs.

Barrick Gold has not been growing in the past few years. Total revenue in 2023 came in at $11.39 billion, almost flat from a year earlier. Its 2020 revenue stood at over $12.59 billion.

Still, there is a likelihood that the company’s revenue growth will grow this year, helped by the rising gold and copper prices. Analysts expect that the company’s revenue will be $12.27 billion this year followed by $13.49 billion in 2025.

Its profit is also expected to continue rising. Analysts expect that the average earnings will go to $0.94 this year followed by $1.15 in 2025. There are chances that the company will beat these estimates.

GOLD chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the GOLD stock price has been bouncing back in the past few weeks. It has risen to a high of $18.30, its highest point since January 2024.

The stock has recently formed a golden cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Arnaud Legoux Moving Averages (ALMA) cross each other. It is also nearing the important resistance point at $18.40, its highest point on December 22nd.

Therefore, the outlook for Barrick Gold’s share price is bullish, with the next point to watch being at $20.24, its highest point in May 2023. This price is about 12.4% above the current level.

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