The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Oct-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 19-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here. Did you buy Yom Kippur?The stock market is setting up for a buy signal. The accompanying chart shows the S&P 500 with the usually reliable Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM). Its 14-day RSI has become oversold. A buy signal is triggered when RSI recycles to neutral.
While I am near-term cautious on the stock market, I believe a strong upside breakout is just around the corner. You just have to be patient. The full post can be found here.
