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SPDR Long Term Treasury Portfolio ETF
(NY:
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Updated: 8:00 PM EDT, Oct 14, 2024
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Bull Steepening Is Bearish For Stocks – Part Two
September 08, 2024
With the odds growing that a long bull steepening may be upon us, it’s incumbent upon us to quantify how various stock indices, sectors, and factors have done during similar yield curve movements.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Yield Curve Shifts Offer Signals For Stockholders
August 28, 2024
The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Uncoventional Wisdom
August 19, 2024
Returns from large cap stocks have continued to beat mid and small caps over time so that trend hasn’t changed. However, the outperformance of large caps since the onset of COVID has come mostly since...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Artificial Intelligence
Exposures
Artificial Intelligence
COVID-19
Gold Analysis: Uptrend May Return Quickly
July 29, 2024
By the end of last week's trading, the price of gold rose to $2,390 per ounce before closing at $2,388 per ounce. This represented a 1% decrease from the previous session as markets for clues regarding...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
The Fed Gets Its Wish
July 08, 2024
The economic data wasn’t particularly shocking or weak but it seemed as if last week may have marked a change in the economic outlook.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Rates Spark: US Growth Pessimism Drives Yields Lower
June 05, 2024
US yields have been falling for four days straight on growth pessimism. Bund yields have been dragged lower too but have less room to fall much further from here. Friday’s US payrolls will be an...
Via
Talk Markets
Market Briefing For Wednesday June 5
June 05, 2024
The economic data continues learning in the difficult condition I've described a variation on stagflation and a variation only because of societal bifurcation.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Natural Gas In A Major Compression… [Dirty Dozen]
May 06, 2024
In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we talk about a likely bottom in risk assets, along with a potential bottom in bonds, followed by an even more intriguing bottom in natural gas, plus more…
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Bonds
Energy
Exposures
Debt Markets
Fossil Fuels
Redditors Question Change To Fed Policy: Are They 'Slowing QT To Prevent A Crash'?
May 02, 2024
The Fed kept rates unchanged but announced a significant reduction in its quantitative tightening program starting in June. Redditors have diverse opinions on its effectiveness and potential impact on...
Via
Benzinga
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Insiders Are Bailing Out…
January 08, 2024
In this week’s Dirty Dozen we talk about speculators buying the dip in Qs along with that means for this selloff. We then discuss the very high insider sell ratio, look at active fund positioning, walk...
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Spark: The 4.5% Line In The Sand Is Breached
November 09, 2023
The US 10yr auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a tad early, and ignores...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Bonds
Exposures
Debt Markets
Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil And Gold, But Little Sign Of Haven Buying In FX
October 18, 2023
US economic data surprised to the upside yesterday, and although interest rates rose as one would expect, the dollar's initial gains were pared, and the Dollar Index finished slightly lower on the...
Via
Talk Markets
Bond Market Noise Hides Tremendous Opportunity
October 18, 2023
Treasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plethora of influences can explain deviations between yields and inflation.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Three Questions To Ask Any Guru Opining On The Situation In The Middle East
October 10, 2023
War has broken out in the Middle East. As usual, everyone is attempting to have an expert take on this situation. The reality is that less than one in 10,000 of the people speaking on this stuff have...
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: Patience Is A Virtue
October 02, 2023
Most strategic asset allocation strategies have produced negative returns over the last two years. A 60/40 allocation of Vanguard Total Stock and Vanguard Total Bond is down over 6%.
Via
Talk Markets
Stock Market Crash Alert: Brace Yourself for ‘The Flippening’
September 25, 2023
Brace yourself for a potential stock market crash if the Flippening gets underway. Here's what investors need to know.
Via
InvestorPlace
US 10-Year, 30-Year Yields Hit Decade Highs, Shaking 5 Treasury ETFs
September 25, 2023
The Fed maintaining higher interest rates sparked an unprecedented surge in Treasury yields, impacting borrowing costs and raising concerns about economic growth.
Via
Benzinga
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
U.S. Labor Market Activity: Slowing, Not Weakening
September 06, 2023
While the Fed has emphasized that future policy decisions—i.e., the potential for another rate hike—would be based on the “totality” of upcoming economic data, make no mistake, employment reports go to...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Ignore The Noise, This Is The Framework For The Markets Today
August 15, 2023
There are red flags out there, but these are warnings not signals that it’s time to get bearish. The purpose of investing is to make money, not miss out on gains because of a warning. So we ride this...
Via
Talk Markets
US Stock Futures Steady As Earnings Boost Sentiment, Dollar Holds Near Yearly Lows
July 19, 2023
Futures tied to major indexes trade near breakeven as upbeat corporate earnings and expectations of a soft landing scenario support market sentiment.
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Stocks Win The First Half
July 03, 2023
The first half of the year is over and despite a few bank failures and three more rate hikes by the Fed, stocks and bonds both managed to produce gains in the first six months of 2023, but growth...
Via
Talk Markets
Stocks May Suffer With Rates On The Cusp Of A Surge Higher
July 03, 2023
It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, with today being a half day, and the market being closed on Tuesday. This will be a hectic week with a lot of data. Starting Monday with the ISM data for...
Via
Talk Markets
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: Wednesday, June 14
June 14, 2023
The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value”, based on the average estimate of three models assembled by CapitalSpectator.com for May...
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: Beware The Aftershocks
June 12, 2023
GDP growth in Germany was negative for two quarters but with the DAX still near its high, it doesn’t seem to be striking fear in the hearts of investors. I’d say European growth has downshifted but so...
Via
Talk Markets
Morgan Stanley Expects 16% Drop In S&P 500 Earnings: Here's What The Investment Bank Is Bullish On
June 05, 2023
Via
Benzinga
Weekly Market Pulse: Politicians Acting Badly
May 22, 2023
Should investors be worried about the impending breach of the US debt ceiling? A default would be catastrophic according to numerous news articles I’ve read recently. But maybe we should concentrate on...
Via
Talk Markets
Is The Tech Rally Nearly Over?
May 22, 2023
Investors have been piling into safe-havens lately, with growing worries over how the US debt ceiling issue will be resolved. A couple of large tech firms, Meta and Nvidia, have doubled their share...
Via
Talk Markets
The Strangest US Treasury Yield Curve In History, What's Goin On?
April 23, 2023
The 3-month to 1-month T-Bill spread is the largest in history. Simultaneously we have record or near-record inversions on bellwether spreads.
Via
Talk Markets
Spreads, Breakevens, And Risk/uncertainty As Of End-March
April 03, 2023
The 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread has come down, though it’s hard to say what this means. Risk as measured by the VIX has come down too, while uncertainty as measured by the Baker, Bloom & Davis...
Via
Talk Markets
A Shock to the System
March 26, 2023
Despite the jitters around the financial sector major indices all turned in positive performances this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% in Friday’s session. The S&P 500 closed up 0.6%...
Via
Talk Markets
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